ROE成长跨越规律！从财务层面还原ROE成长路径[21/12/01]_财富号

#长线策略

ROE成长跨越规律

由于企业存在周期性，因此没有任何一家公司的ROE可以连续每年保持上涨不波动、不发生阶段性下跌，但必然有许多企业在快速成长或行业景气周期中收获ROE上升，从而给投资者带来高额的投资回报。

可以找到A股历史上，发生过ROE上升的公司及其相对应的历史阶段，并从这些公司身上，通过归纳法找到ROE可以成长的“答案”。

企业在不同发展阶段，应使用不同的标准精选，赛意信息、中欣氟材、火炬电子昨日涨幅13.45%、9.99%、6.90%。

证券名称净资产收益率ROE(%)毛利率分位数(%)期间费用率(%)总资产周转率上日涨幅(%)近1月累计涨幅(%)市值(亿元)赛意信息

30068718.6666.6823.190.8613.4514.43107.88中欣氟材

00291517.8346.228.950.789.9916.1878.73火炬电子

60367824.3567.469.330.766.909.18382.37法拉电子

60056325.4478.5910.370.666.0027.14587.70长城科技

60389716.795.502.302.435.1327.94118.38嘉化能源

60027320.9560.155.740.725.089.09158.47硅宝科技

30001915.6541.2411.680.955.0022.9196.96鲁阳节能

00208823.3964.2412.750.904.64-4.06126.74三鑫医疗

30045318.8458.6613.560.874.4611.9152.56永东股份

00275317.9123.243.761.294.0811.6834.47三全食品

00221619.6737.2311.521.193.741.70168.19久立特材

00231818.5149.9211.100.853.6327.53158.89广信股份

60359920.4876.0114.320.593.587.83188.14东风股份

60151517.4662.5518.840.563.2638.01136.07抚顺特钢

60039916.1841.0710.370.743.1724.14499.93伯特利

60359619.1645.858.720.663.0926.51300.21伟星股份

00200317.9975.2423.020.833.069.0286.27大豪科技

60302521.7277.2515.650.673.056.48269.50绝味食品

60351722.7765.5013.310.973.01-5.91398.75安纳达

00213618.3821.784.741.512.78-17.0438.10弘亚数控

00283330.3864.669.410.902.787.1997.57泰晶科技

60373823.7566.3112.550.682.5417.91126.09鲁西化工

00083028.2459.957.610.902.52-7.72293.84万盛股份

60301046.2469.9312.011.392.4822.62144.17湖南海利

60073118.6746.059.760.712.4318.6640.82海康威视

00241530.2481.7923.750.862.25-8.264540.94沪电股份

00246318.6153.6310.190.702.2334.64287.53扬杰科技

30037318.3065.6813.490.682.2145.36385.89南兴股份

00275715.2843.5511.110.892.127.0444.02亚普股份

60301316.6823.528.561.362.0621.6688.94世名科技

30052215.9673.1318.800.732.051.5645.82三维化学

00246929.8255.1011.370.712.00-0.1639.78片仔癀

60043629.1885.4012.800.691.997.712696.83利尔化学

00225819.8952.6910.890.681.9132.22163.19雅化集团

00249715.8165.6813.240.601.85-1.03354.99上海物贸

60082228.394.524.273.761.83-2.7941.41龙大肉食

00272618.084.762.072.381.7914.76122.40工业富联

60113819.098.563.831.971.73-2.362219.18兴化股份

00210915.3057.333.300.641.690.1956.96紫天科技

30028022.7366.933.900.571.5910.3850.82杭叉集团

60329818.7929.3011.951.451.55-1.32142.09朗迪集团

60372615.5132.5810.160.951.5212.8227.29新金路

00051022.8740.9910.661.561.524.6936.73永新股份

00201415.8837.719.761.031.438.5743.64ST安泰

60040827.958.672.272.121.39-21.2929.40艾华集团

60398917.3755.5813.480.691.3817.84172.89桃李面包

60386616.1149.8710.901.101.38-1.94293.47扬农化工

60048619.5542.3311.190.931.3211.10410.62新安股份

60059630.3934.736.811.181.32-4.30220.15上峰水泥

00067230.8382.999.920.651.28-2.14141.33漫步者

00235116.7661.2616.870.911.194.67105.63中航电测

30011416.0370.9320.200.651.1918.36105.51航天电器

00202515.0665.8520.780.661.1710.48370.82英飞特

30058220.1565.4515.950.671.17-0.9577.17生益科技

60018325.6851.2010.570.891.160.55545.15新余国科

30072215.5287.5024.050.511.11-3.9874.66姚记科技

00260526.8878.3125.950.931.093.3371.51宝信软件

60084523.1558.6013.530.721.07-5.071007.70中国中免

60188849.4471.165.681.401.06-14.974011.36莲花健康

60018615.0520.579.381.041.06-7.4251.48中核钛白

00214518.6466.937.770.531.04-3.49278.68金达威

00262623.6283.9719.740.661.048.86197.64欧普照明

60351517.4870.7626.841.061.03-1.06147.60万年青

00078924.9248.925.820.840.99-3.1889.79金安国纪

00263626.6443.008.020.920.966.54106.72氯碱化工

60061826.5749.585.990.840.96-15.44146.28铁流股份

60392617.5949.7912.550.780.9228.9632.95和邦生物

60307719.8470.114.970.550.90-5.59298.50山东出版

60101915.4172.5721.640.600.89-0.18118.54天际股份

00275917.6181.5411.540.520.89-14.63127.92飞科电器

60386823.9680.3622.421.030.82-0.51177.42环球印务

00279919.9813.705.821.810.823.9328.02阳谷华泰

30012117.3838.668.651.050.748.3940.70万和电气

00254317.1443.2216.260.900.712.4752.50塔牌集团

00223316.3068.507.670.600.71-3.02118.87赤峰黄金

60098821.4963.824.290.520.66-1.88278.21恒天海龙

00067719.9648.417.741.010.65-0.3226.78浙江鼎力

60333819.8252.827.920.680.6518.63399.70新疆天业

60007524.3668.0015.360.720.65-4.55131.91凌霄泵业

00288422.5057.134.100.890.64-1.9278.20电投能源

00212815.8765.894.480.650.61-9.03222.71马应龙

60099315.8571.8223.730.890.55-5.30103.28迈克生物

30046326.8189.6925.780.640.5110.62173.90华鲁恒升

60042636.9469.353.320.940.51-1.87620.90燕塘乳业

00273215.5055.1917.761.270.48-7.6539.53高德红外

00241422.2687.9120.390.510.459.15570.92当升科技

30007322.2531.118.280.940.4221.09475.39航锦科技

00081823.0554.548.440.930.4118.76281.31光威复材

30069919.8682.8015.100.500.3717.51436.97通策医疗

60076331.1683.1913.000.740.31-11.55633.36山河药辅

30045216.6455.8812.250.660.3015.0730.17周大生

00286724.1258.369.551.200.29-3.60191.29海螺水泥

60058520.2853.704.780.850.28-4.431919.41兆易创新

60398617.0577.3317.240.590.25-11.981004.77韶钢松山

00071723.5211.343.652.030.24-7.8799.20晋亿实业

60100215.4140.2511.480.560.21-5.4145.28太龙股份

30065022.977.754.292.340.2013.3332.13宇信科技

30067420.3466.4025.260.880.1912.93138.05锐科激光

30074719.7456.9411.480.820.123.51280.10和胜股份

00282419.7730.749.191.290.09-2.9282.43安琪酵母

60029822.6850.2112.370.870.044.42466.57承德露露

00084824.6881.4913.990.810.00-2.70108.61宏发股份

60088519.1066.3119.380.87-0.06-3.35540.10老凤祥

60061222.727.422.552.77-0.13-1.65237.18罗莱生活

00229316.8578.1925.840.93-0.158.15113.60奥士康

00291316.7441.9010.670.74-0.165.67127.29易德龙

60338021.8352.7510.361.02-0.1824.7864.40浙江美大

00267740.2087.8017.061.00-0.26-6.3599.04普洛药业

00073921.2554.0116.231.03-0.3122.65486.97长海股份

30019616.5160.3610.150.58-0.331.9773.90金雷股份

30044321.5179.307.570.52-0.41-6.78166.16新洋丰

00090216.9627.924.370.93-0.42-9.65217.33九洲药业

60345617.0964.3115.110.67-0.4517.14499.06芒果超媒

30041321.3867.3120.390.74-0.4610.99813.95国恩股份

00276817.6521.125.431.28-0.467.8769.93好太太

60384820.2782.1822.650.66-0.48-2.1850.41南极电商

00212716.6655.054.970.73-0.61-11.04160.30三利谱

00287618.2546.339.020.69-0.657.9197.71新易盛

30050219.9961.985.270.59-0.6618.52174.94百合花

60382316.9347.159.910.76-0.670.8847.09伟星新材

00237229.6277.9018.091.06-0.701.09295.18盈趣科技

00292525.3254.3510.500.96-0.718.86261.39视源股份

00284124.2847.0415.211.41-0.71-10.85462.92中颖电子

30032729.6981.2422.360.93-0.7322.52238.06微光股份

00280118.7755.167.460.73-0.779.6247.60旗滨集团

60163643.0586.9415.100.84-0.81-3.03429.26濮阳惠成

30048117.8053.378.000.80-0.8322.6978.31三友化工

60040918.7244.0010.050.88-0.84-0.84194.46裕兴股份

30030515.6753.126.540.69-0.8617.2359.92圣邦股份

30066134.4287.5025.810.85-0.877.35809.55阿科力

60372215.4640.3610.251.02-0.9228.8548.07太钢不锈

00082521.8224.036.301.31-0.97-1.57408.42洽洽食品

00255720.8761.3714.890.78-1.02-4.98271.65海天味业

60328832.5374.297.030.83-1.06-0.524730.72怡球资源

60138825.0728.754.141.38-1.07-2.12101.71鱼跃医疗

00222321.4084.1324.150.66-1.07-0.14360.99北新建材

00078621.3762.3212.930.84-1.08-4.79450.25麦克奥迪

30034115.0879.8526.370.80-1.1414.3657.29星宇股份

60179920.1447.459.890.72-1.17-1.49619.92陕西煤业

60122524.9153.583.940.96-1.33-3.811151.77天赐材料

00270938.8669.358.130.95-1.33-11.771289.59新宙邦

30003719.8565.6312.980.65-1.35-14.48497.88振德医疗

60330123.4275.0418.050.94-1.3527.15107.70福晶科技

00222216.7089.1123.990.53-1.3912.6179.04三孚股份

60393821.8753.703.370.79-1.41-11.7883.06美亚光电

00269024.3486.4922.200.66-1.42-3.92263.30恒立液压

60110037.0879.3210.920.85-1.44-10.461027.71苏泊尔

00203228.5549.8715.441.71-1.4614.51497.66晨化股份

30061017.0245.9512.190.94-1.5533.0044.70金禾实业

00259717.9844.606.570.66-1.664.81286.06名臣健康

00291926.1785.6028.700.89-1.67-11.2452.64顺络电子

00213816.1270.3514.970.54-1.7010.86307.13双汇发展

00089520.2726.446.501.99-1.83-3.69986.04富瀚微

30061323.4779.2020.480.76-1.901.68193.36山东赫达

00281026.8969.5310.950.79-1.9114.67203.80思源电气

00202815.1551.1412.800.75-1.9231.65419.46富满微

30067146.9886.1513.910.77-1.9610.22181.85新钢股份

60078217.755.531.401.92-2.02-9.95170.28君正集团

60121629.4063.558.720.50-2.032.91447.21沙钢股份

00207519.6325.263.081.29-2.09-9.52123.80晨光文具

60389927.9041.9913.251.72-2.10-7.04519.54东方雨虹

00227121.2358.5614.190.83-2.10-2.27997.56寒锐钴业

30061816.0557.076.490.60-2.1729.26303.80全志科技

30045817.5773.8922.830.68-2.199.25233.06凯莱英

00282115.0480.2521.680.52-2.2533.281255.43海大集团

00231116.249.495.612.42-2.57-2.921065.80艾迪精密

60363818.9866.8114.490.67-2.61-9.34267.03振华股份

60306715.9841.8712.040.89-2.6112.0370.06百傲化学

60336020.2379.1614.010.58-2.6320.4738.76拓邦股份

00213919.7440.1912.080.94-2.7146.04267.10福斯特

60380622.3448.196.160.97-2.91-10.591156.54恒润股份

60398531.4752.557.460.81-2.92-2.96160.10银都股份

60327717.6373.7120.020.70-3.301.0180.05科锐国际

30066222.5013.435.772.58-3.33-1.51117.21横店东磁

00205620.5735.2310.131.03-3.3438.16324.53豪迈科技

00259517.6953.128.220.81-3.444.88220.00国电南瑞

60040616.3350.4210.930.63-3.7612.562296.37信捷电气

60341620.4576.1416.170.58-3.8116.8175.20北方稀土

60011130.8336.034.871.02-3.9617.151955.32华贸物流

60312816.9012.035.632.53-4.180.23171.15金力永磁

30074823.6941.939.990.83-4.6126.15346.03石大胜华

60302643.1651.588.081.83-6.10-15.60404.63

数据来自:

ROE成长跨越规律

借鉴于东方证券研报结论，以史为鉴，找到发生过ROE上升的公司并复盘，从行业层面分析：

1) 医药、房地产、化工、食品饮料、计算机、家电和汽车是ROE成长性第一梯队的行业，更容易完成ROE20%+的成长目标。

2) 几乎每个高ROE成长性行业背后，都有宏观货币政策或行业产业政策的推动。

3) 消费和科技行业的ROE成长性来源于稳定的下游需求以及技术和产品应用场景的突破更新迭代。

4) 周期板块ROE也有成长性。只不过演绎得更为极端、极致，且受宏观经济的影响最大。

5) 细分子行业、子版块、子产品越多的大行业，越容易诞生高ROE成长性的公司。

从个股财务层面，同样可以归纳总结这些公司N年前的财务特征：

1) 毛利率最高组，ROE起点和天花板均最高，其毛利率在成长期间反而有最大幅度的提升，一定程度上说明了行业壁垒带来强者恒强的情况。

2) 毛利率最低组，其高周转率、低费用率是获得高ROE“入场券”的基础，而成长性则更多地是来自于毛利率的提升、财务杠杆的提升以及把控费能力提升做到极致，这一分组公司倾向于通过增大资本开支扩充产能（重资产类行业）、补充生产增加存货、给予上下游企业现金流话语权来来打通产品销路、从而最终获得利润率的提升。

3) 毛利率居中组，活用杠杆和提升费用支出效率是关键。重资产以及融资性行业更多的是靠有息负债，轻资产行业则更多的是依靠活用无息（或者低息）流动负债，赚上下游产业链的现金流。提升费用支出效率意味着在既定的产品服务毛利率水平下，通过控费、优化管理效率和研发支出、优化销售费用支出来提升营收。

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