2023年一季度净利润42亿，同比增815.43%
Xiaomi (1810 HK)
2Q23E preview: earnings recovery to accelerate; Maintain BUY
Xiaomi will report 2Q23 results in late August. We estimate 2Q revenue will decline 6% YoY and adj. net profit will climb 92% YoY, mainly driven by improved GPM on lower BOM cost, better product mix and effective cost control. Looking ahead, we believe earnings recovery will continue into 2H23E and smartphone business will be boosted by new model launches and channel restocking. Overall, we maintain our view in 1Q23 that the worst is over for Xiaomi's earnings decline. We raised our FY23- 25E EPS by 8-20% to reflect faster-than-expected earnings recovery, and lifted our TP to HK$16.41, based on same 24x FY24E P/E with higher earnings forecasts. Maintain BUY. Catalysts include EV progress and market share gain.
小米 （1810 HK）
2Q23E前瞻：盈利复苏加速;维持买入
小米将于8月下旬公布2Q23业绩。我们估计第二季度营收将同比下降6%，调整后净利润将同比增长92%，这主要是由于较低的物料清单成本、更好的产品组合和有效的成本控制提高了GPM。展望未来，我们相信盈利复苏将持续到2H23E，智能手机业务将受到新机型推出和渠道补货的推动。总体而言，我们维持我们在23年第一季度的观点，即小米盈利下滑的最糟糕时期已经过去。我们将23-25财年每股收益上调8-20%，以反映盈利复苏快于预期，并将目标价上调至16.41港元，基于相同的24倍24财年市盈率和更高的盈利预测。维持买入。催化剂包括电动汽车的进步和市场份额的增加。
Smartphone: sluggish sales but improving GPM on lower BOM costs. Canalys reported Xiaomi's shipment decline of 16% YoY in 2Q23 (vs -10% YoY for industry) with market share of 13% (No. 1 among Chinese brands). Xiaomi's sluggish smartphone was mainly dragged by macro headwinds and weakness in India market. In terms of ASP, we expect 2Q23E ASP to decline 4.5% QoQ, and GPM will reach 119% due to improving product mix backed by premiumization strategy, lower BOM costs and reduced headwinds on forex and inventory write-off. Looking into 2H23E, we are positive on Xiaomi's seasonal demand pull-in and new product launches. We expect Xiaomi's shipment to decline 7% to 140.6mn in FY23E and rebound 7%/3% YoY to 150mn/155mn in FY24/25E.
智能手机：销售疲软，但以较低的BOM成本改善了GPM。Canalys报告称，小米在23年第二季度的出货量同比下降16%（行业同比下降10%），市场份额为13%（在中国品牌中排名第一）。小米低迷的智能手机主要受到宏观逆风和印度市场疲软的拖累。在平均售价方面，我们预计第二季度23E平均售价将环比下降4.5%，GPM将达到119%，原因是高端化战略支持的产品组合改善，BOM成本降低以及外汇和库存核销的不利因素减少。展望2H23E，我们对小米的季节性需求拉入和新产品发布持积极态度。我们预计小米的出货量将在23财年下降7%至140.6百万，并在24/25财年同比反弹7%/3%至150百万/155百万。
loT/internet: 618 festival, white goods and stronger gaming. We estimate AloT/Internet revenue will increase 6%/5% YoY in 2Q23E (vs -14%l -1% YoY in 1Q23), mainly due to 618 festival, summer seasonal sales of white goods and stronger gaming segment. We expect AloT/Internet GPM to improve QoQ to 16%/72% driven by better product mix. Our FY23/24E EPS is 22%/17% above consensus mainly due to our positive view on higher GPM across all segments, prudent cost control and better operating leverage.
loT/互联网：618节日，白色家电和更强的游戏。我们估计 AloT/互联网收入将在 23 年第 2 季度同比增长 6%/5%（23 年第 1 季度同比增长 -14%l -1%），这主要是由于 618 节日、白色家电的夏季季节性销售和更强大的游戏细分市场。我们预计AloT/互联网GPM将在更好的产品组合推动下将环比提高到16%/72%。我们的23/24财年每股收益比市场预期高出22%/17%，这主要是由于我们对所有细分市场GPM提高、审慎的成本控制和更好的运营杠杆持积极态度。
Expect earnings recovery to accelerate; Raise TP to HK$16.41 on better earnings visibility. We believe Xiaomi will maintain investment expense of 7.5-8.0bn for smart EV/new initiatives and Smart EV launch timeline in 1H24E. We raised our FY23-25E EPS by 8-20% to reflect stronger earnings recovery, and our new TP of HK$ 16.41 is based on the same 24x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY.
预计盈利复苏将加速;将目标价上调至16.41港元，以提高盈利可见性。我们相信小米将在1H24E中保持75-80亿的投资费用，用于智能电动汽车/新举措和智能电动汽车发布时间表。我们将23-25财年每股收益上调8-20%，以反映盈利复苏强劲，而我们新的目标价16.41港元是基于相同的24倍24财年市盈率。 维持买入。
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