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拐点显现,分化重估——2024年电新中期策略之锂电
需求:国内动力预期良好,储能迅速起量支撑
动力:国内政策和市场驱动共振,整体需求不断向好,海外短期受高利率、经济低迷和供应链不完善等因素,短期需求增速一般,但中长期具备支撑;储能:当前锂电价格触及底部,配储经济性逐渐显现,海内外需求开始释放。我们预计2024年动力锂电销量1152GWh,同比增长27%,23-26年CAGR为22%;储能锂电销量259GWh,同比增长40%,23-26年CAGR为33%。
供给:负面因素逐个消除,出海破除贸易壁垒
(1)减值问题消除:展望下半年,碳酸锂等材料的价格跌价空间相对有限,正极企业库存保持较低水平。
(2)产能扩张克制:2023年以来行业直接融资规模大幅缩减,在目前的盈利底部阶段,企业扩产谨慎。
(3)边际开工率有望向上:从在建工程角度,未来结构件、负极材料和磷酸铁锂等环节产能利用率有望边际改善,且格局分化较为显著;
(4)盈利底部夯实,具备涨价潜力:近期比亚迪上调负极和铜箔的招标价格,体现出企业当前盈利的底部夯实,部分材料价格具备上涨潜力。
(5)出海破局:尽管欧美构建贸易壁垒,但中国电动车制造成本远低于、且效率远高于欧美企业,各环节出海建厂逐步落地,有望破除贸易壁垒。
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