市场摘要：美股开盘前，法国极右翼和左翼在首轮议会选举中成绩亮眼（马克龙阵营损失惨重）。某种程度上法国大选让美股市场松了一口气，欧元走强、美股上涨。拜登总统周四灾难性的辩论表现继续影响市场。美债利率上涨，因为移民限制和贸易关税让人们普遍认为特朗普担任总统会引发通胀加速。最高法院的有利裁决也增加了特朗普大选获胜的几率，即美国总统可以被豁免大多数指控（有点加冕总统为国王的意思）。
科技板块的强劲表现再次推动美三大股指小幅上涨。Iphone制造商苹果表现强劲，但涨幅佼佼者是马斯克的特斯拉，该公司在中国的销售数据好于预期。
亚洲期货夜盘，日经225期货和韩国Kospi200期货小幅下跌，而香港市场因假期休市。
Market Highlights Prior to US open, markets were somehow relieved by the French election even though both the far right and the left resounding wins at the expense of President Macron’s party. The Euro strengthened and markets rose. In the US, the aftermath of the disastrous debate performance by President Biden on Thursday continued to impact markets. US interest rates rose as a Trump presidency is perceived to be inflationary (given the immigration curbs and trade tariffs). Adding to Trump’s odds of winning the election was the favorable ruling by the Supreme Court that the President of the United States could be immune for most prosecutions, an interesting take that would effectively crown the President to be a King.
Again, a strong showing by technology stocks lifted the three US indices to small gains. I-phone maker Apple was strong, but the main gainer was Elon Musk’s Tesla on the back of better than expected sales numbers in China.
In Asian night futures trading, Nikkei and Kospi had small losses while the Hong Kong markets were closed for a market holiday.
主要股指：标普500涨0.27%至5,475.09；道琼斯涨0.13%至39,169.52；纳斯达克100涨0.66%至19,812.22。
美市个股：苹果涨2.91%至216.75美元；特斯拉涨6.05%至209.86美元；英伟达涨0.62%至124.30美元。
亚洲指数自各市场收盘后：日经225期货跌150点至39,520（跌0.38%）；韩国Kospi200期货跌1.85点至384.85（跌0.48%）；香港市场休市；富时中国A50期货涨11点至11,928（涨0.09%）。
利率与预期：10年期美国国债利率涨7基点至4.46%；2年期美国国债利率无变化报4.76%；降息预期变化不大，7月31日FOMC会议降息的概率为9%，首个主要的降息预期指向9月18日会议降息（概率为65%），11月7日会议降息的概率仍为77%。
外盘商品：原油期货涨2.38%至83.48美元；天然气期货跌4.92%至2.473美元；黄金期货涨0.10%至2,342美元。
波动率：VIX现货收于12.22（跌0.22点）；VIX期货（合约期7月）收于13.45（跌0.57点）；标普500指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于10.3%（基于相同行权价跌0.6点）；纳斯达克100指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于14.5%（基于相同行权价跌0.6点）。
【注：此处的任何内容均不构成购买证券的要约或要约邀请。】
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数据源自芝加哥时间2024年7月1日下午16时Bloomberg (平价波动率数据源自True Partner）。
本文作者可以追加内容哦 !
