市场摘要：美国6月通胀数据CPI低于预期，环比下降。这几乎锁定了9月的降息，美股指期货应声上涨、美债利率下降。但开盘后，投资者们决定遵循格言“买消息卖事实”，开始抛售“七巨头”。板块轮换的迹象显而易见，因为小盘股指数罗素2000强劲上涨。截至当天收盘，纳斯达克100大幅下跌，标普500跌近1%。遭受重创的科技股有马斯克的特斯拉（跌8.4%）、AI芯片制造商英伟达（跌5.6%）、Facebook和Instagram的母公司Meta（跌4.1%），以及网飞（跌3.7%）。
《纽约时报》发表乔治·克鲁尼的评论文章后，要求拜登总统退出与特朗普竞选的呼声继续增加。
亚洲夜盘，股指期货涨跌互现。因为美元走软和日本央行干预传言，日经225期货下挫（Kospi200期货下跌较少）。香港市场走强，增加了日内涨幅。投资者们对下周中共全会的预期升温（预期经济改革将利好市场）。
Market Highlights The US inflation data (CPI) came in lower than expected, with a month-on-month decline. This all but cemented a rate cut by September and initially US index futures rose on the news, while yields came down. But after the market open, investors decided to follow the adage “buy the rumour and sell the fact” on the rate cuts, and the magnificent seven technology stocks started selling off. Signs of a rotation were visible as the small-cap Russell 2000 index actually had a strong rally. By the end of the day, the Nasdaq was down sharply, with the S&P down shy of 1%. Among hard hit technology names were Elon Musk’s Tesla (-8.4%), AI chipmaker Nvidia (-5.6%), Facebook and Instagram parent Meta (-4.1%) and Netflix (-3.7%).
The calls for President Biden to step out of his race against Donald Trump continue to increase, following the George Clooney opinion piece in the New York Times.
In Asian overnight futures trading, futures were mixed with strong losses in the Nikkei (and less so in Kospi) on the weaker dollar and rumors of an intervention by the Bank of Japan, while Hong Kong markets were stronger adding to gains in the day time trading session, as investor expectations build towards next week’s Plenum with expectations of market-friendly economic reforms.
主要股指：标普500跌0.88%至5,584.54；道琼斯涨0.08%至39,753.75；纳斯达克100跌2.24%至20,211.36。
美市个股：苹果跌2.32%至227.57美元；特斯拉跌8.44%至241.03美元；英伟达跌5.57%至127.40美元。
亚洲指数自各市场收盘后：日经225期货跌750点至41,620（跌1.77%）；韩国Kospi200期货跌3.47点至397.08（跌0.87%）；恒生指数期货涨121点至17,978（涨0.68%）；恒生国企指数期货涨47点至6,426（涨0.74%）；富时中国A50期货涨13点至12,046（涨0.11%）。
利率与预期：10年期美国国债利率跌7基点至4.21%；2年期美国国债利率跌11基点至4.51%；CPI利好后，降息预期跳涨。7月31日FOMC会议降息的概率为10%，9月降息现在看来已成定局，11月的第二次降息概率约为50%，甚至可能在12月第三次降息。
外盘商品：原油期货涨1.00%至82.92美元；天然气期货跌2.49%至2.271美元；黄金期货涨1.71%至2,420.50美元。
波动率：VIX现货收于12.92（涨0.07点）；VIX期货（合约期7月）收于14.20（涨0.05点）；标普500指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于10.7%（基于相同行权价跌0.2点）；纳斯达克100指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于15.8%（基于相同行权价跌0.4点）。
【注：此处的任何内容均不构成购买证券的要约或要约邀请。】
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数据源自芝加哥时间2024年7月11日下午16时Bloomberg (平价波动率数据源自True Partner）。
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