市场摘要：两个多月来最平静的几天，标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数的年化波动率均低于10%。也许美股市场已经赶在中秋节前暂作休息。密歇根大学消费者信心指数略有走强，市场对此持积极态度，股市随后缓慢上涨。标普500指数和道琼斯指数经过这些上涨后，都逼近历史高点。美联储定于下周做出利率决定，市场对快速和大规模的降息更有信心，虽然 CPI 以及近期的其他经济数据走强。
鉴于上述种种，本周是2024 年美股表现最好的一周。板块轮动流向即将从降息中受益更多的小盘股，罗素2000指数单周上涨2.5%。商品市场方面，黄金价格再创新高，反映了对降息的预期和持续的地缘政治不确定性。
亚洲夜盘，市场涨跌互现，较日间收盘变化不大。
Market Highlights One of the most quiet days in over two months, as both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 had movements below 10% annualized volatility. Maybe the US markets already took a breather before the Mid-Autumn Festival. The University of Michigan consumer confidence number came out a tad stronger, which markets interpreted positively as stocks slowly rose for the remainder of the trading day. The gains brought both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones to within a hair of their all-time highs. With the Fed rate decision scheduled for next week, markets have become more convinced of quick and large rate cuts despite the higher CPI and recent stronger economic readings.
As such, this week has been the best week in 2024 amid a rotation into companies that would benefit most from rate cuts in the near future, with the small-cap Russell 2000 index gaining +2.5%. In commodities markets, the price of gold reached another all-time high reflecting both the expectations of lower interest rates and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
In Asian night futures trading, markets were mixed with little changes compared to their daytime trading session close.
主要股指：标普500涨0.54%至5,626.02；道琼斯涨0.72%至41,393.78；纳斯达克100涨0.47%至19,514.58。
美市个股：苹果跌0.12%至222.50美元；特斯拉涨0.21%至230.29美元；英伟达跌0.03%至119.10美元。
亚洲指数自各市场收盘后：日经225期货跌60点至36,230（跌0.17%）；韩国Kospi200期货涨2.35点至348.30（涨0.68%）；恒生指数期货跌27点至17,348（跌0.16%）；恒生国企指数期货跌11点至6,057（跌0.18%）；富时中国A50期货涨15点至11,143（涨0.13%）。
利率与预期：10年期美国国债利率跌2基点至3.66%；2年期美国国债利率跌5基点至3.59%；9月降息50基点的概率继续上升至 45%。总体来看，到今年年底市场定价可能性最高的是降息125个基点（即三次会议都降息，其中两次会议各降息50基点）。拉长时间来看，预计到 2025 年底将降息250个基点（同之前的预期一致）。
外盘商品：原油期货涨0.33%至69.20美元；天然气期货跌2.55%至2.297美元；黄金期货涨1.08%至2,608.40美元（历史新高）。
波动率：VIX现货收于16.56（跌0.51点）；VIX期货（合约期9月）收于16.80（跌0.15点）；标普500指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于14.0%（基于相同行权价涨0.2点）；纳斯达克100指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于19.3%（基于相同行权价跌0.2点）。
【注：此处的任何内容均不构成购买证券的要约或要约邀请。】
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数据源自芝加哥时间2024年9月13日下午16时Bloomberg (平价波动率数据源自True Partner）。
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