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轮胎出海 2.0:是产能过剩还是新机遇?
1、我国轮胎行业出海主要驱动力是贸易壁垒之下的全球轮胎供需结构区域性不平衡。全球轮胎市场消费量整体波动中保持长期向上增长趋势,2023 年半钢胎和全钢胎消费量共 17.86 亿条,欧美需求占比 50%以上,我国需求为 3.27 亿条、占比约 18%,而我们推算得到我国半钢胎和全钢胎产能在10 亿条以上,我国轮胎行业供给过剩,对外出口显得尤为重要。
2、供给方面,海外建厂的难度较大,从建设到投产到爬坡需要的时间较长。我们详细梳理了海外工厂的产能以及投产节奏等情况。
3、需求方面,全球轮胎需求有望保持增长,且中国企业仍有份额提升的广阔空间。全球以及欧美等市场的轮胎消费量主要是替换市场,替换市场轮胎需要主要随着汽车保有量的增长而增长。
4、综合来看,我们认为市场对于轮胎出海产能过剩的担忧是片面的。从供需平衡的角度,尽管未来确实有大量的拟建产能,但从实际投产的节奏来看,我们认为 2027 年前出现产能过剩的概率较低。
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