Lee Spelman表示，截至9月底，美国目前在全球股票市场中规模占比近70%，接近历史较高点，这主要归功于：一是创新。美国公司在大多数科技赛道都拥有较为靠前的市场份额，创新在资产管理行业也发挥了关键作用，随之产生了新的产品种类；二是高效。美国公司高度关注创造盈利；三是股东回报。企业管理层有动力最大化股东回报。她认为，美国的市场份额相对于世界其他地区不太可能继续上升。美国市场占比太高并不是一个健康的趋势。随着中国增长前景的改善，预计投资者的信心将会提升。投资者的投资组合需要在地理和资产类别上进行良好的多元化，中国可能就是改变投资者行为的催化剂。
以下为Lee Spelman在2024全球财富管理论坛现场演讲实录：
在座的很多嘉宾可能知道，摩根大通在中国展业已经有100多年！在2023年，我们完成了对本地合资基金公司的全资收购，上投摩根基金正式更名为摩根基金。
我今天要讲的主题是全球股票市场的竞争与合作。我在美国股票市场投资近50年，最初是科技板块的研究员，后来担任摩根资产管理美国权益投资的首席投资官。截止9月底，摩根资产管理在全球的主动管理的股票投资组合超过1万亿美元。由于资产管理行业的竞争无比激烈，我们对这一纪录感到格外自豪。我们取得这一成功的关键在于持续关注基本面和定量研究，同时执行严格的风控制度，致力于为客户创造长期强劲的回报。我们对中国业务的前景非常乐观，相信我们的中国本地团队能与美国、欧洲以及亚洲其他地区的团队通力合作，争取确保摩根资产管理在未来很多年里仍然能在股票投资领域名列世界前茅。
在我漫长的股票投资职业生涯中，我见证了很多变化。如今，随着人工智能（AI）工具的普及，我们可以确定将有更多变革不断涌现。然而，尽管一切都在发展变化，股票投资非常关键的一点从未改变，那就是股票的价值取决于其未来的现金流，如果能准确识别上市公司盈利的走势，就很可能产生“阿尔法”，也就是跑赢基准的超额回报。
客户的偏好也在改变。仅在股债之间开展资产配置的日子早就一去不复返。现在的投资选择极大丰富，而且股票和债券的私募市场也日益受到客户的关注。我们在摩根资产管理非常自豪的一点是，我们善于建立并且维护长期客户关系。例如，我们和一个股票客户的关系可以追溯到19世纪80年代！他们当时投资于新兴市场，而当时的“新兴”市场指的是美国！当时，铁路股在投资组合中占很大比重，现在则变成了科技和医疗。那100年后又会是什么样子？
过去几十年里最显著的变化之一是被动投资的兴起，仅仅跟踪指数就能获得市场的“贝塔”。全球的被动投资的规模目前已经占到全市场的一半以上。但尽管如此，包括摩根资产管理在内的很多主动管理人仍经常能跑赢基准，获得超额回报，从而蓬勃发展。我们认为这两种方法将继续共存。被动投资是实现战术投资目标的优质工具，但主动投资可以通过阿尔法的复利效应，争取提高长期回报。
这些年来的一大惊喜是美国市场的主导地位。截止9月底，从规模来看，美国市场几乎占到全球股票市场的70%，处于历史较高点。这与10年、20年、30年前的预测形成鲜明对比，当时各方普遍认为，随着世界其他市场的扩张，美国市场的重要性将有所下降。我们在20世纪90年代初看到了一些迹象，当时日本几乎占到全球市场的15%，但随着估值泡沫的破灭，美国再次成为全球股票市场的主力军。
美国股票市场的地位要归功于以下原因：
一是创新。虽然全球各地都在创新，但美国非常擅长在创新中创造盈利，这主要得益于充足易得的资本、完善的知识产权保护、以及深厚的创业文化。美国公司在大多数科技赛道都拥有较为靠前的市场份额，从云计算到人工智能都是如此。这个局面已经维持了几十年，而且我们相信还将持续。创新在资产管理行业也发挥了关键作用。ETF和算法交易的出现使得交易更加高效，随之产生了新的产品种类，例如由摩根倡导的期权策略产品——主动股票ETF。
二是高效。美国公司高度关注创造盈利。截止9月底，美国公司的利润率处于或接近历史较高水平，一方面原因在于多数公司是“轻资产”的，例如科技和媒体公司，但也要归功于各方为提高效率和生产力所做出的普遍努力。未来，人工智能工具在维持这一趋势方面很可能会发挥重要作用。
三是股东回报。企业管理层有动力最大化股东回报。如今，公司重新开始重视公司治理，并且通过股票回购和分红向股东返还资本。
上述因素的效果非常显著。根据摩根资产管理，在过去15年里，美国股票市场的年均回报率为14%，而同期非美国股票市场的回报率仅为6%。预测未来是不可能的，但我们认为美国的市场份额相对于世界其他地区不太可能继续上升。美国市场占比太高并不是一个健康的趋势，尤其是因为美国市场是由少数几家科技公司主导的。我们在最近几个月看到了向其他行业拓展的努力，希望这一趋势能得以持续。全球化在过去二十年中对美国产生了很大的推动作用，但全球化的进程可能已经达到顶峰。美元也是如此，它的强劲程度已经超出了大多数专家的预测。另一个风险是退出量化宽松政策，长期以来，美国和世界其他一些市场都能获得廉价资金，但这个时代似乎已经结束。
美国股票相对于世界其他股票市场估值较高，但仅凭估值不足以改变投资者的兴趣。事实上，美国与世界其他地区之间的估值差异多年来一直存在。因此，真正能改变投资者行为的是催化剂。
中国可能就是那个催化剂。随着中国增长前景的改善，预计投资者信心将会提升。中国在全球的进出口中扮演着重要角色。
我们需要看到在股票市场方面更广泛的全球合作。这包括统一公司治理政策、会计和披露准则、以及防止跨境市场操纵的政策。
我们很高兴在上海设立了摩根大通的分支机构。我们可以借助这一平台分享全球洞见，希望这将为我们的客户创造更好的投资回报，无论他们是在本地还是全球投资。
全球股票市场的健康至关重要。资本推动创新和增长。股票市场也与对经济形势的总体看法密切相关。研究表明，即使人们没有直接持有股票，当股票市场表现强劲时，他们对自身的财务前景也会更加乐观。这也是一种“动物精神”。
最后，我们都知道全球股票市场受到波动的影响，无论是来自微观还是宏观因素，有时两者兼而有之。这就是为什么风险控制如此重要。投资者的投资组合需要在地理和资产类别上进行良好的多元化。
祝大家在未来的市场中一切顺利，也能取得好的回报！
As many of you are aware, J.P. Morgan has been doing business in China for more than 100 years! In 2023 we completed the acquisition of our local fund management partner to form J.P. Morgan Asset Management China.
My topic today is Global Equity Markets, Competition and Cooperation.
I have been an investor in the U.S. Equity markets for nearly 50 years, first as a technology industry specialist and later as CIO of our U.S. Equity business. J.P. Morgan Asset Management has over $1 trillion in actively managed equity portfolios, of which more than $700 billion is in U.S. Equities. This represents a record for our business, and we are quite proud of these results given the extremely competitive nature of the asset management industry. The key to our success has been the relentless focus on fundamental and quantitative research combined with rigorous risk controls to generate strong long term returns for our clients. We are very optimistic about our efforts here in China and believe that the cooperation between our local team here with those in the U.S., Europe and the rest of Asia will enable J.P. Morgan to continue to be a leader in Global Equities for many years to come.
Over my long career in the equities markets, I have seen many changes and now, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools proliferating, we can be certain that more upheaval is on the way. Yet despite all the evolution, the most critical aspect of equity investing has not changed: stocks are worth their future cash flows and if you can do a good job in identifying the trend of those future earnings you can indeed generate “alpha”, or excess returns above the benchmark.
Client preferences have also changed. Long gone are the days when asset allocation was simply between stocks and bonds. Now there are many more options and private markets, both in equities and credit, have been seeing increasing client interest. We at J.P. Morgan take great pride in fostering long term client relationships. In fact, one of our equity client’s dates to the 1880’s! At the time, they invested in emerging markets. The “emerging” market was the United States! Back then the portfolio was heavily weighted towards railroads. Today it is dominated by tech and health care. What will it look like 100 years from now?
One of the most significant changes over the past decades has been the rise of passive investing, simply tracking the index to achieve the beta of the market. Passive investing now represents just over one-half of the market. Despite that, many active managers, including J.P. Morgan, have continued to thrive by generating returns over the benchmark. We think both approaches will continue to coexist. Passive can be a great way to achieve tactical goals while active investing can add to long term returns by the compounding of alpha.
One big surprise has been the dominance of the U.S. It now comprises nearly 70% of the global stock market, at or near an all-time peak. This is in sharp contrast to the predictions of 10, 20 or 30 years ago when the consensus view was that the U.S. market would decline in significance as other markets around the world expanded. We saw a glimpse of this in the early 1990s when Japan became nearly 15% of global markets but that faded amid a valuation bubble and the U.S. remains the lion’s share of global equities.
There are several reasons for U.S. leadership:
1. Innovation: While innovation exists all over the globe, the U.S. has been the most adept at monetizing innovation, largely due to the availability of capital, protection of intellectual property and a strong entrepreneurial culture. U.S companies have the leading market share in most sectors of technology, from cloud computing to AI. This has been true for many decades, and we believe this dominance will continue. Innovation has also played a key role in asset management, with the emergence of ETFs, algorithmic trading which has made trading more efficient, and new product categories such as options income where J.P. Morgan has been a pioneer, with the largest active equity ETF in the industry.
2. Efficiency: U.S. companies are highly focused on profitability. Margins for U.S. companies are at or near an all time peak. In part this is because more companies are “asset light” such as the technology and media sectors but it also reflects the broader efforts to improve efficiency and productivity. AI tools are likely to play a big role going forward in continuing this trend.
3. Shareholder returns: Corporate management teams are incentivized to maximize shareholder returns. There is renewed emphasis on strong corporate governance and using share buybacks and dividends to return capital to shareholders.
The results have been remarkable. The U.S. equity market has returned 14% annually over the past 15 years, compared to a 6% return for non-U.S. equity markets over the same timeframe.
It is impossible to predict the future, but we think it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will continue to gain share versus the rest of the world. The concentration in the U.S. market, being led by a handful of technology companies, is not a healthy trend. We have seen some broadening out to other sectors in recent months and expect this to continue.
Globalization, which has been a big boost to the U.S. over the past two decades, has likely peaked. The same may also be true for the U.S. dollar which has been stronger than most experts have predicted. An additional risk is the unwinding of QE. The U.S., and many countries around the globe, had access to easy money for a long time. That era appears to have come to an end.
Valuations for U.S. equities are high relative to most other world equity markets. But valuation alone is not enough to sway investor interest. In fact, the valuation differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world has been the reality for many years. What is needed to change investor behavior is a catalyst.
China could be that catalyst. As the Chinese growth outlook improves, investor confidence is likely to come back. China plays a major role in both exports and imports around the globe.
We need to see greater global cooperation in equity markets. This includes more consistency around corporate governance, uniform accounting and disclosure standards and cross border policies preventing market manipulation.
We are excited to have our J.P. Morgan China office here in Shanghai. We can share insights across the globe which should lead to better investment results for our clients, whether they are investing locally or globally.
The health of global equity markets is vitally important. Access to capital drives innovation and growth. Equity markets are also closely linked to the general view for how an economy is performing. Studies demonstrate that people feel more optimistic about their own economic outlook when equity markets are strong, even if they do not personally own stocks. It’s a form of “animal spirits”.
In closing, we are all aware that global stock markets are subject to volatility, whether from micro or macro factors, and sometimes both. This is why risk controls are so important. Investor portfolios need to be well diversified across geographies and asset classes.
I wish everyone good luck and good fortune as we navigate the markets ahead!
本文作者可以追加内容哦 !
