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FOMC声明
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicators of business fixed investment have been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
自5月份联邦公开市场委员会会议以来收到的信息表明，劳动力（就业）市场仍然强劲，经济活动正以温和的速度增长。近几个月来，平均而言，就业增长稳定，失业率仍然保持低位。尽管家庭支出增长似乎已从年初开始回升，但企业（商业）固定投资的指标一直疲软。以12个月为基础。除食品和能源以外的其他项目的总体通货膨胀和通货膨胀率低于2％。以市场为基础的通胀补偿措施有所下降;基于调查的长期通胀预期指标几乎没有变化。
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.
根据其法定授权，委员会力求促进最大限度的就业和价格稳定。为了支持这些目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标范围维持在2-1 / 4至2-1 / 2％。委员会继续认为经济活动的持续扩张，强劲的劳动力市场条件以及委员会对称的2％目标附近的通货膨胀是最可能的结果，但这种前景的不确定性有所增加。鉴于这些不确定性和缓和的通胀压力，委员会将密切监测输入信息对经济前景的影响，并将采取适当行动，以维持经济增长，劳动力市场强劲，通胀率接近其对称的2%目标。
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
在确定联邦基金利率目标范围的未来调整的时间和规模时，委员会将评估与其最大就业目标及其对称的2％通胀目标相关的已实现和预期经济状况。该评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括劳动力市场状况的衡量标准，通胀压力指标和通胀预期，以及对金融对唱和国际发展的指数。 投票支持货币政策行动的主席是杰罗姆H。鲍威尔，主席；约翰C威廉姆斯，副主席。
米歇尔W。鲍曼雷尔布雷纳德：理查德H。克拉丽达：查尔斯L。埃文斯：埃丝特L。乔治
兰德尔K。Quarles和Eric S Rosengren投票反对这一行动的是詹姆斯布拉德，他在本次会议上倾向于将联邦基金利率的目标范围降低25个基点。
鲍威尔讲话
Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Remarks June 19, 2019 CHAIR POWELL: Good afternoon, and welcome. My colleagues and I have one overarching goal: to sustain the economic expansion, with a strong job market and stable prices, for the benefit of the American people.
鲍威尔主席:大家下午好，欢迎光临。我和我的同事们有一个首要目标:保持经济增长，保持强劲的就业市场和稳定的物价，造福美国人民。
At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded today, we maintained our policy interest rate, but made some significant changes to our statement. Since the beginning of the year, we have judged that our current policy stance was broadly appropriate, and that we should be patient in assessing the need for any changes. In light of increased uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, we now emphasize that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective.
在今天结束的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，我们维持了政策利率，但对声明做了一些重大修改。今年年初以来，我们认为当前的政策立场总体上是适当的，我们应该耐心评估是否需要做出任何改变。鉴于不确定性增加和通胀压力减弱，我们现在强调，委员会将密切监测输入信息对经济前景的影响，并将采取适当行动维持经济增长，劳动力市场强劲，通胀率接近2%的目标。
I’d like to step back and review how the changing economic and financial picture brings us to today’s decision. So far this year, the economy has performed reasonably well, with solid fundamentals supporting continued growth and strong employment. Inflation has been running somewhat below our objective, but we have expected it to pick up, supported by solid growth and a strong job market. Along with this favorable picture, we have been mindful of some ongoing crosscurrents, including trade developments and concerns about global growth. At the time of our last FOMC meeting, which ended on May 1, there was tentative evidence that these crosscurrents were moderating. The latest data from China and Europe were encouraging, and there were reports of progress in trade negotiations with China. Our continued patient stance seemed appropriate, and the Committee saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.
我想回顾一下不断变化的经济和金融形势是如何促使我们做出今天的决定的。今年以来，经济运行良好，基础扎实，经济持续增长，就业强劲。通货膨胀率一直低于我们的目标，但我们预计，在强劲增长和就业市场的支持下，通货膨胀率会回升。除了这一有利局面，我们还注意到一些正在发生的逆流，包括贸易发展和对全球增长的担忧。在5月1日结束的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)上次会议上，有初步证据表明，这些矛盾正在缓和。来自中国和欧洲的最新数据令人鼓舞，有报道称与中国的贸易谈判取得了进展。我们继续保持耐心的立场似乎是适当的，委员会认为没有充分的理由调整我们的政策利率。
In the weeks since our last meeting, the crosscurrents have reemerged. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns about the strength of the global - 2 - economy. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may be starting to show through to incoming data. Risk sentiment in financial markets has deteriorated as well. Against this backdrop, inflation remains muted.
自从我们上次见面以来的几个星期里，矛盾又出现了。世界各地的经济增长指标总体上令人失望，引发了人们对全球经济实力的担忧。贸易方面的明显进展变成了更大的不确定性，我们在商业和农业方面的接触报告加剧了对贸易发展的担忧。在最近的一些调查中，这些担忧可能是导致企业信心下降的原因之一，而且可能正开始通过即将发布的数据体现出来。金融市场的风险情绪也有所恶化。在这种背景下，通货膨胀依然温和。
While the baseline outlook remains favorable, the question is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional monetary policy accommodation. Many FOMC participants now see that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened. Let me explain the basis for this judgment, starting with the outlook for jobs and growth.
尽管基准前景依然乐观，但问题是这些不确定性是否会继续影响前景，从而要求更多的货币政策调整。许多联邦公开市场委员会的参与者现在看到，采取更加宽松政策的情况有所加强。让我从就业和增长前景开始，解释这一判断的基础。
Participants see unemployment remaining low this year and next. Monthly job gains in May were lower than expected, however, and in light of recent developments this bears watching. Still, many labor market indicators remain strong.
与会者认为今明两年失业率将保持在低位。然而，5月份的月度就业增长低于预期，鉴于近期的事态发展，这一点值得关注。不过，许多劳动力市场指标依然强劲。
Community, business, and labor leaders all tell us that the prospects for job seekers have seldom been better, and that this is true even for those who have traditionally struggled to find work. Wages are rising, and this is particularly so for lower-paying jobs. Committee participants’ growth projections from 2019 are little revised from March, with a central tendency of 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent, just above their estimates of longer-run normal growth rate. The growth projections for the year as a whole mask some important details about the composition of growth. Annual growth will be boosted by the surprisingly strong first quarter, which had just been reported at the time of the May FOMC meeting.
社区、企业和劳工领袖都告诉我们，求职者的前景从未像现在这样好，甚至对那些传统上难以找到工作的人也是如此。工资在上涨，低收入工作尤其如此。委员会成员对2019年经济增长的预测与3月份相比没有太大的调整，中间趋势为2.0%至2.2%，略高于他们对长期正常增长率的预测。全年增长预期掩盖了增长构成的一些重要细节。第一季度出人意料的强劲表现将提振年度经济增长，该数据在5月份联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议召开时刚刚公布。
As I noted then, the unexpected strength was largely in net exports and inventories--components that are not generally reliable indicators of ongoing momentum. The more reliable drivers of growth in the economy are spending on consumption and business investment. While consumption was weak in the first quarter, incoming data show that it has bounced back, and is now running at a solid pace. In contrast, the - 3 - limited evidence available at this time suggests that growth in business income has slowed in the second quarter. Moreover, manufacturing production has posted declines so far this year. Thus, while the baseline outlook remains favorable, many FOMC participants cited the investment picture and weaker business sentiment, and the crosscurrents I mentioned earlier, as supporting their judgment that the risk of less favorable outcomes has risen.
正如我当时所指出的，出人意料的增长主要集中在净出口和库存方面，而这些通常并不能可靠地反映当前增长势头。经济增长更可靠的驱动力是消费支出和商业投资。尽管第一季度消费疲软，但最新数据显示，消费已经反弹，目前正以稳健的步伐运行。相比之下，目前可获得的- 3有限证据表明，企业收入增长在第二季度有所放缓。此外，今年到目前为止，制造业生产已经出现下滑。因此，尽管基准前景依然乐观，但FOMC的许多参与者引用了投资前景和商业信心走弱，以及我之前提到的反向因素，来支持他们的判断，即不太乐观的结果风险已经上升。
After running close to our symmetric 2 percent objective for most of last year, inflation declined in the first quarter. Data since then show some pickup. Participants broadly see inflation moving back up toward our 2 percent objective, but at a slower pace than had been expected. The central tendency for 2019 core inflation--which omits volatile food and energy components--is between 1.7 and 1.8 percent.
在去年大部分时间接近我们2%的对称目标之后，第一季度通货膨胀率有所下降。自那以后的数据显示出一些回升。与会者普遍认为通货膨胀率将回升至2%的目标，但速度低于预期。2019年核心通胀率(不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分)的集中趋势在1.7%至1.8%之间。
Setting aside short-term fluctuations, Committee participants expressed concerns about the pace of inflation’s return to 2 percent. Wages are rising, as noted above, but not at a pace that would provide much upward impetus to inflation. Moreover, weaker global growth may continue to hold inflation down around the world.
在不考虑短期波动的情况下，委员会成员对通货膨胀率重返2%表示担忧。正如上文所述，工资正在上涨，但上涨的速度不会给通胀带来很大的上行动力。此外，全球经济增长放缓可能会继续抑制全球通胀。
We are firmly committed to our symmetric 2 percent inflation objective, and we are well aware that inflation weakness that persists even in a healthy economy could precipitate a difficult-to-arrest downward drift in longer-run inflation expectations. Because there are no definitive measures of inflation expectations, we must rely on imperfect proxies. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved down since our May meeting and some surveybased expectations measures are near the bottom of their historic ranges. Combining these factors with the risks to growth already noted, participants expressed concerns about a more sustained shortfall of inflation.
我们坚定地奉行2%的对称通胀目标，而且我们很清楚，即使在一个健康的经济体中，通胀疲软的持续存在，这可能导致长期通胀预期难以遏制的出现下行趋势。由于没有明确的通胀预期指标，我们必须依赖不完善的指标。自5月会议以来，以市场为基础的通胀补偿措施有所下降，一些基于调查的预期措施接近历史区间的底部。与会者将这些因素与已经注意到的增长风险结合起来，对通胀持续下降表示担忧。
Overall, our policy discussions focused on the appropriate response to the uncertain environment. The projections of appropriate policy show that many participants believe that some cut in the federal funds rate will be appropriate in the scenario that they see as most likely. Though - 4 - some participants wrote down policy cuts and others did not, our deliberations made clear that a number of those who wrote down a flat rate path agree that the case for additional accommodation has strengthened since our May meeting. This added accommodation would support economic activity and inflation’s return to our objective.
总的来说，我们的政策讨论集中于对不确定的环境作出适当的反应。适当政策的预测显示，许多FOMC参与者认为，在他们认为最有可能发生的情况下，适当下调联邦基金利率是合适的。尽管一些与会者写下了削减政策的内容，而其他人没有，但我们的审议明确表明，一些写下统一利率路径的人同意，自我们5月份的会议以来，增加宽松政策的理由有所加强。新增的宽松政策将支持经济活动，并使通胀回归我们的目标。
Uncertainties surrounding the baseline outlook have clearly risen since our last meeting. It is important, however, that monetary policy not overreact to any individual data point or short-term swing in sentiment. Doing so would risk adding even more uncertainty to the outlook. Thus, my colleagues and I will be looking to see whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook. And, we will use our tools as appropriate to sustain the expansion. Thank you. I will be pleased to take your questions.
自上次会议以来，围绕基准前景的不确定性明显上升。然而，重要的是，货币政策不能对任何单个数据点或市场情绪的短期波动做出过度反应。这样做可能会给前景增加更多的不确定性。因此，我和我的同事们将观察这些不确定性是否会继续影响前景。而且，我们将适当地使用我们的工具来维持扩张。谢谢你！我很乐意回答你们的问题。
本文到此结束，谢谢各位的阅读，有问题请在留言区留言或者私信本人都可！！！
（来源：大张带你看财经的财富号 2019-06-20 11:46） [点击查看原文]
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