#炒股日记# 格林美（002340）：从年线到周线，我的四大卖出信号实战体系
中文版本
一、年线视角：价值回归与估值修复
从年K线来看，格林美的股价从7.53元回落至1.50元，是一次典型的价值回归，市净率从高位回落至历史低位，反映了市场对公司基本面的重新定价。而从1.50元温和上行至2.30元的过程中，市净率走势平缓，说明股价上涨主要由净资产增长驱动，不存在估值虚高。
当股价从323.96元的高位快速回落时，这并非业绩崩塌，而是获利盘止盈导致的“错杀”。在年线级别下，任何急跌后的止跌行为，都是最有效、盈利空间最大的买点；任何出现的止跌行为，皆为买点，是估值修复的前奏，是买入良机而非卖出信号。
二、周线视角：四大卖出信号实战体系
在周K线层面，我结合道氏理论、格兰维尔八大法则和波浪理论，构建了一套完整的卖出决策体系：
卖点一：道氏警示信号 + 格兰维尔死叉
- 道氏警示信号：股价在关键压力位（如170.19元）多次尝试突破但未能站稳，说明上方抛压沉重，多头力量衰竭。
- 格兰维尔死叉：当10日均线下穿20日均线，形成“死叉”，这是趋势由多转空的强烈确认信号，是第一卖出信号。
卖点二：反弹无力，诱多确认
在一轮下跌趋势中，股价出现反弹，但在反弹至20日均线时遇阻回落，未能有效突破，这是空头力量依然强大、反弹无力的信号，是卖点二。这意味着多头反攻彻底失败，空头将重新主导市场。
卖点三：乖离过大，过热回调
当股价在上涨过程中，大幅远离20日均线，形成较大的正向乖离率，意味着短期涨幅过大，偏离市场平均成本，存在强烈回调需求，是卖点三。此时应减仓锁定利润，避免利润回吐。
卖点四：波浪理论C浪破位（终极信号）
在波浪理论的调整浪中，当C浪的低点有效跌破A浪的低点时，确认了整个调整结构，下跌趋势将进一步加深，这是卖点四。这是趋势彻底反转的终极信号，应果断清仓离场。
三、当前盘面解读与操作建议
从当前周K线来看，格林美（002340）的MA10、MA20、MA60仍呈多头排列，MACD指标也在零轴上方，中期趋势尚未完全破坏。但股价从242.04元的高点回落，已经开始考验10日均线的支撑，短期回调压力较大。
操作建议：
1. 密切关注10日均线与20日均线的走势，一旦形成死叉，触发卖点一，应果断减仓。
2. 若股价反弹至20日均线附近遇阻回落，触发卖点二，应进一步降低仓位或清仓。
3. 年线级别下，急跌后的止跌行为是核心买点，可逢低布局，把握估值修复行情。
English Version
1. Yearly Chart Perspective: Value Regression and Valuation Repair
From the yearly K-line perspective, GEM Co., Ltd. (002340) saw its stock price fall from 7.53 yuan to 1.50 yuan, a typical value regression where the price-to-book ratio (PB) retreated from highs to historical lows, reflecting the market's re-pricing of the company's fundamentals. During the moderate upward movement from 1.50 yuan to 2.30 yuan, the PB ratio trended smoothly, indicating that the stock price rise was mainly driven by net asset growth without valuation bubbles.
When the stock price quickly retreated from the high of 323.96 yuan, this was not a collapse in performance but a "mispricing" caused by profit-taking by early investors. On the yearly chart level, any bottoming behavior after a sharp drop is the most effective and profitable buying point; all bottoming signals are buying opportunities, heralding valuation repair rather than selling signals.
2. Weekly Chart Perspective: Four Core Sell Signals System
On the weekly K-line, I have built a complete sell decision system by integrating Dow Theory, Granville's Eight Rules, and Elliott Wave Theory:
Sell Signal 1: Dow Warning + Granville Death Cross
- Dow Warning Signal: The stock price repeatedly attempts but fails to break through key resistance levels (e.g., 170.19 yuan), indicating heavy selling pressure and exhausted bullish momentum.
- Granville Death Cross: When the 10-day moving average crosses below the 20-day moving average, forming a "death cross," this is a strong confirmation signal of a trend reversal from bullish to bearish, marking the first sell signal.
Sell Signal 2: Weak Rebound Confirmation
In a downtrend, if the stock rebounds but fails to effectively break through the 20-day moving average and falls back, this confirms that bearish forces remain dominant and the rebound is a "bull trap," triggering Sell Signal 2. This means the bullish counterattack has completely failed, and bears will regain control of the market.
Sell Signal 3: Excessive Divergence and Overheating Correction
When the stock price rises sharply away from the 20-day moving average, creating a large positive divergence rate, it indicates that short-term gains are excessive and the price has deviated from the market average cost, creating a strong need for correction. This is Sell Signal 3, where investors should reduce positions to lock in profits and avoid profit retracement.
Sell Signal 4: Elliott Wave C-Breakdown (Ultimate Signal)
In Elliott Wave correction patterns, when the low of Wave C effectively breaks below the low of Wave A, it confirms the entire correction structure and signals a deepening downtrend. This is Sell Signal 4, the ultimate signal of a complete trend reversal, requiring decisive liquidation.
3. Current Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations
From the current weekly K-line, GEM's MA10, MA20, and MA60 still show a bullish arrangement, and the MACD indicator remains above the zero line, indicating that the medium-term trend has not been completely broken. However, the stock has retreated from the high of 242.04 yuan and is testing the support of the 10-day moving average, with significant short-term correction pressure.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Closely monitor the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. If a death cross forms, triggering Sell Signal 1, decisively reduce positions.
2. If the stock rebounds to near the 20-day moving average and encounters resistance, triggering Sell Signal 2, further reduce positions or liquidate.
3. On the yearly chart level, bottoming behavior after sharp drops is the core buying point; investors can buy on dips to capture valuation repair opportunities.
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本文内容仅代表作者个人观点，不构成任何投资建议、投资咨询或证券推荐。投资决策应基于投资者自身的独立判断，并结合自身风险承受能力。作者不对任何因依赖本文信息而产生的直接或间接损失承担责任。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。
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